Singapore’s economy did better than expected for the third quarter of 2018, growing at a rate of 2.6 per cent year-on-year in Q3 2018. This is down from 4.1 per cent in Q2 and 4.6 per cent in Q1. While this makes Q3 the weakest quarter this year, it still managed to beat expectations of 2.4 per cent growth. Several economists have upgraded their full-year growth forecasts. For example, OCBC upgraded its 2018 full-year forecast from 3 per cent to 3.3 per cent after the results. Separately, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has increased the pace of the Singapore dollar’s appreciation, the second consecutive tightening as part of its half-yearly policy review. Singapore’s central bank said that the move is keeping with a “modest and gradual appreciation path…that will ensure medium-term price stability” and comes as the country’s economy is “likely to remain on its steady path in the quarters ahead, keeping output slightly above potential”. MAS has announced the first tightening of its policy in six years during its April policy statement. MAS expects the economic growth in 2018 to be within the upper half of the forecast range of 2.5 to 3.5 per cent, and to moderate slightly in 2019. MAS projects core inflation to average 1.5 to 2.5 per cent in 2019, slightly higher than the 1.5 to 2 per cent for 2018. Headline inflation is projected to be about 1 to 2 per cent in 2019, up from 0.5 per cent in 2018. Some analysts have opined that they do not foresee another tightening in April 2019, as growth is expected to slow further in the next half year.
